The goal of this website is to summarize and cite other accurate, reliable sources. It does not contain my own opinions, except for which sources are thorough, well-researched, or well-reasoned.
Testimonials are so marked. If better sources surface, I will replace old sources. If you find an issue with a source, let me know, and I will take it down. Contact information is at the bottom.
Detected Cases
In order of fastest updated to less so:
- Worldometers: Listed by country, newsfeed of events, demographic information, and more. Also now US-specific including by state.
- Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering: List and map of both country and state.
- The Atlantic COVID Tracking Project: Positive and negative tests by state, updated every 5 minutes in the "States current" tab.
- Washington teen Avi Schiffman's site: Lists by country and state, heat map.
- Directory of individual state departments of health: Contain county-specific cases.
- Our World in Data: Information not just on detected cases, but on tests completed by country.
- (NEW) 1Point3Acres: US and Canada specific information, including by county, trends, news feed, supplies, and more.
Growth Rates
Conclusion: Growth is exponential, with precise growth rates varying by country and depending on containment measures. Without containment, the doubling rate is 1-6 days varying by country. It's approximately 2 days in the US.
- Our World in Data: Doubling rate by country
- Logarithmic Graph
- Worldometers
Estimating "True" Cases
Conclusion: While we are aware of ~142,000 cases in the US, due to lack of testing, lack of insurance, and the government's delay in taking it seriously, a conservative estimate for the number of "true" cases is at least 12x the current number, or 1,704,400 cases.
Infection Rates, Severity, and Medical Care
Conclusion: Age or weakened immune system increases fatality rates. However, infection rates are high for younger ages too, and 12–20% of those infected need hospitalization/oxygen. Healthcare systems cannot accommodate this! (See the Italy testimonials.)
Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China
- Note: This is one small study (N=1099) in China. Age range 15-49 had N=557.
- Table 1: Age breakdown on hospitalization ("severe") and ICU/mechanical ventilation/death ("presence of primary composite end point")
- 41% of hospitalized patients came from 15-49 age range. 12% of patients in age range 15-49 were hospitalized.
- Demographics of infected (not fatal) cases: 22% under 20; 77.8% age 30-69
- R0: 2-2.5
- Hospitalization: 80% mild/moderate (includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia); 13.8% severe (requires hospitalization; being on oxygen); 6.1% critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, or organ failure/dysfunction)
- Demographics of fatal cases by age, gender
- Demographics of pre-existing conditions and fatal cases
- R0: 1.4-3.58 depending on the study
Impact of Social Distancing
Conclusion: In order to not be in need of medical care when the system is overwhelmed in 9-14 days, you need to not get infected TODAY.
- Flatten the Curve
- A simulation comparing degrees of social distancing and geographical quarantine
- Stay the Fuck Home
- Why You Must Act Now
- Experts weigh in on whether you should cancel your dates, dinner parties, and gym sessions
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Young and Unafraid of the Coronavirus Pandemic? Good for you. Now Stop Killing People: risks of social interaction for people of all ages by a senior doctor in western Europe.
"Catching the virus can mess up your life in many, many more ways than just straight-up killing you. [...] How about needing four months of physical therapy before you even feel human again. Or getting scar tissue in your lungs and having your activity level restricted for the rest of your life."
Symptoms & When to Seek Medical Care
Conclusion: The primary symptoms are fever, dry cough, fatigue, phlegm, and shortness of breath.
Unless your symptoms are fully consistent and are severe, and/or you have pre-existing conditions that elevate your risk, you will almost definitely be told to treat your illness from home. STAY HOME for fourteen days except if to receive medical care. If your symptoms become more severe or your risk is higher, CALL a doctor, urgent care facility, or emergency room to discuss your case and whether or not you should come in to get tested. (And whether they have the capacity to test you or you need to go elsewhere.)
Note: "Mild" cases only mean you do not need to be hospitalized, and thus can treat yourself from home. However, these can include moderate pneumonias, or being so sick that you can barely get out of bed.
Symptoms
- Our World in Data: The symptoms of COVID-19—the best resource for COVID-19 symptoms.
- Business Insider: Symptom comparison with cold, flu, allergies—not the best resource for COVID-19 symptoms, but good for the other three.
- WebMD: Symptom comparison with cold and flu—not the best resource for COVID-19 symptoms, but good the other two.
- (NEW) Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection
- John Hopkins Medicine: What Do I Do If I Feel Sick?
- CDC: [When to Receive] Testing
- CDC: What To Do if You Are Sick
- Unverified tips from a nurse—please let me know if you have a better resource.
- Snopes: Should COVID-19 Patients Avoid Taking Ibuprofen?—It is debated whether or not one should take NSAIDS to reduce a fever; there is not enough evidence either way.
- WHO does not recommend against the use of of ibuprofen
Transmission
Conclusion: The virus can be transmitted from asymptomatic individuals, as well as those with symptoms. It is transmitted through respiratory droplets which most common contaminate surface (for approximately 1-2 days, but for some surfaces up to 9 days), or travel through the air via cough or sneeze to someone within approximately six feet (but do not stay in the air). The virus can also be found in fecal matter (and thus aerosolized from flushing a toilet), but it's unclear whether it can be transmitted this way, and is certainly not common.
- Journal of the American Medical Association: Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19
- WHO-China Joint Mission Final Report on COVID-19
- ScienceNews: Coronavirus is most contagious before and during the first week of symptoms
- CDC: How it Spreads
Regularly Updated Science-Based News Sources
Recommendations from UCSF's panel on COVID-19.
Future Predictions
- (NEW) COVID-19 Projections: Predicted hospital beds used and number of deaths.
- (NEW) How the Pandemic Will End: A detailed look at the short and long term. The tl;dr is either via simultaneous end (unlikely), herd immunity (via mass death), or most likely long term social-distancing as needed until a vaccine is available.
Testimonials from American Health Workers
- March 15, Seattle: Planning for how to determine who gets ventilators when there are not enough.
- March 16, New York City: Almost out of ventilators.
Testimonials on COVID-19 in Italy (US is 9-14 days behind)
- March 12, Italian doctor: No patients over 60 receive intubation. 50 patients per night per hospital require intubation under 60, but there is not enough.
- March 11, The Atlantic: "The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors"—Italian doctors create a manifesto on which patients get care and which do not.
- March 9, friend of Italian intensivist: Hospitals at 200% capacity; discusses the patterns that got here.
Testimonials on Access to and Finding Testing
Conclusion: In the US, unless you have all symptoms to a severe degree AND risk factors, you likely will not get tested. If you're trying to get tested, prepare to spend a lot of time on the phone; be sure to ask clarifying questions.
- New York City, March 18
- New Jersey, March 17: How to Efficiently Get Information on Testing
- California, March 10
- New York, March 10
- Washington DC, March 6, South Korea travel history
Testimonials on Costs of Testing
Conclusion: In the US, it has cost as much as $500 with insurance or $1700 without. Recently, the head of the CDC promised to cover the cost of testing regardless of insurance. It is unclear when this would go into effect.
Success of Containment Measures in Other Countries
Conclusion: Major efforts in testing and containment can slow the spread and prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed. This can be seen in the growth rate section as well.
Taiwan:
- Washington Post, March 11 — somewhat biased article; looking for better sources.
Home Preparedness
Conclusion: In addition to washing your hands and not touching your face, stock up on medications and at least 14 days of non-perishable or frozen food.
- Preparing and Mitigating Risks for Coronavirus by Greg Nelson
- So you think you're about to be in a pandemic?
- Aerosol and Surface Stability of COVID-19: The virus was detected for up to 3 hours as an aerosol, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to 72 hours on plastics and stainless steel.
- (NEW) Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide
Miscellaneous
Conclusions: Some may be contagious for up to 27 days even without showing symptoms; the virus can live on some surfaces for up to 9 days.
Contributors:
Eric Neyman
Kiran Vodrahalli
Contact: kgoldner at cs.columbia.edu