Aggregate Information
on COVID-19

The goal of this website is to summarize and cite other accurate, reliable sources. It does not contain my own opinions, except for which sources are thorough, well-researched, or well-reasoned.

Testimonials are so marked. If better sources surface, I will replace old sources. If you find an issue with a source, let me know, and I will take it down. Contact information is at the bottom.





Detected Cases

In order of fastest updated to less so:


Growth Rates

Conclusion: Growth is exponential, with precise growth rates varying by country and depending on containment measures. Without containment, the doubling rate is 1-6 days varying by country. It's approximately 2 days in the US.


Estimating "True" Cases

Conclusion: While we are aware of ~142,000 cases in the US, due to lack of testing, lack of insurance, and the government's delay in taking it seriously, a conservative estimate for the number of "true" cases is at least 12x the current number, or 1,704,400 cases.


Infection Rates, Severity, and Medical Care

Conclusion: Age or weakened immune system increases fatality rates. However, infection rates are high for younger ages too, and 12–20% of those infected need hospitalization/oxygen. Healthcare systems cannot accommodate this! (See the Italy testimonials.)

Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

WHO-China Joint Mission Final Report on COVID-19 Worldometers


Impact of Social Distancing

Conclusion: In order to not be in need of medical care when the system is overwhelmed in 9-14 days, you need to not get infected TODAY.


Symptoms & When to Seek Medical Care

Conclusion: The primary symptoms are fever, dry cough, fatigue, phlegm, and shortness of breath.

Unless your symptoms are fully consistent and are severe, and/or you have pre-existing conditions that elevate your risk, you will almost definitely be told to treat your illness from home. STAY HOME for fourteen days except if to receive medical care. If your symptoms become more severe or your risk is higher, CALL a doctor, urgent care facility, or emergency room to discuss your case and whether or not you should come in to get tested. (And whether they have the capacity to test you or you need to go elsewhere.)

Note: "Mild" cases only mean you do not need to be hospitalized, and thus can treat yourself from home. However, these can include moderate pneumonias, or being so sick that you can barely get out of bed.

Symptoms

Seeking Medical Care Treating Yourself From Home



Transmission

Conclusion: The virus can be transmitted from asymptomatic individuals, as well as those with symptoms. It is transmitted through respiratory droplets which most common contaminate surface (for approximately 1-2 days, but for some surfaces up to 9 days), or travel through the air via cough or sneeze to someone within approximately six feet (but do not stay in the air). The virus can also be found in fecal matter (and thus aerosolized from flushing a toilet), but it's unclear whether it can be transmitted this way, and is certainly not common.


Regularly Updated Science-Based News Sources

Recommendations from UCSF's panel on COVID-19.


Future Predictions


Testimonials from American Health Workers


Testimonials on COVID-19 in Italy (US is 9-14 days behind)


Testimonials on Access to and Finding Testing

Conclusion: In the US, unless you have all symptoms to a severe degree AND risk factors, you likely will not get tested. If you're trying to get tested, prepare to spend a lot of time on the phone; be sure to ask clarifying questions.


Testimonials on Costs of Testing

Conclusion: In the US, it has cost as much as $500 with insurance or $1700 without. Recently, the head of the CDC promised to cover the cost of testing regardless of insurance. It is unclear when this would go into effect.


Success of Containment Measures in Other Countries

Conclusion: Major efforts in testing and containment can slow the spread and prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed. This can be seen in the growth rate section as well.

Taiwan:

South Korea:


Home Preparedness

Conclusion: In addition to washing your hands and not touching your face, stock up on medications and at least 14 days of non-perishable or frozen food.

Miscellaneous

Conclusions: Some may be contagious for up to 27 days even without showing symptoms; the virus can live on some surfaces for up to 9 days.




Contributors:

Eric Neyman
Kiran Vodrahalli

Contact: kgoldner at cs.columbia.edu